How did absentee voting affect the 2020 U.S. election?

The 2020 U.S. election saw a record turnout, saw a huge increase in absentee voting, and brought unified national Democratic control­yet these facts alone do not imply that vote-by-mail increased turnout or benefited Democrats. Using new microdata on millions of individual voters and aggregated turnout data across all 50 states, this paper offers a causal analysis of the impact of absentee vote-by-mail during the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic. Focusing on natural experiments in Texas and Indiana, we find that 65-year-olds voted at nearly the same rate as 64-year-olds, despite the fact that only 65-year-olds could vote absentee without an excuse. Being just old enough to vote no-excuse absentee did not substantially increase Democratic turnout relative to Republican turnout. Voter interest appeared to be more important in driving turnout across vote modes, neutralizing the electoral impact of Democrats voting by mail at higher rates during the historic pandemic.

Isolating Populations to Control Pandemic Spread in an Austere Military Environment.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has been a struggle for medical systems throughout the world. In austere locations in which testing, resupply, and evacuation have been limited or impossible, unique challenges exist. This case series demonstrates the importance of population isolation in preventing disease from overwhelming medical assets. METHODS: This is a case series describing the outbreak of COVID-19 in an isolated population in Africa. The population consists of a main population with a Role 2 capability, with several supported satellite populations with a Role 1 capability. Outbreaks in five satellite population centers occurred over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic from its start on approximately 1 March 2020 until 28 April 2020, when a more robust medical asset became available at the central evacuation hub within the main population. RESULTS: Population movement controls and the use of telehealth prevented the spread within the main population at risk and enabled the setup of medical assets to prepare for anticipated widespread disease. CONCLUSION: Isolation of disease in the satellite populations and treating in place, rather than immediately moving to the larger population center's medical facilities, prevented widespread exposure. Isolation also protected critical patient transport capabilities for use for high-risk patients. In addition, this strategy provided time and resources to develop infrastructure to handle anticipated larger outbreaks.

Universal vote-by-mail has no impact on partisan turnout or vote share.

In response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many scholars and policy makers are urging the United States to expand voting-by-mail programs to safeguard the electoral process. What are the effects of vote-by-mail? In this paper, we provide a comprehensive design-based analysis of the effect of universal vote-by-mail-a policy under which every voter is mailed a ballot in advance of the election-on electoral outcomes. We collect data from 1996 to 2018 on all three US states that implemented universal vote-by-mail in a staggered fashion across counties, allowing us to use a difference-in-differences design at the county level to estimate causal effects. We find that 1) universal vote-by-mail does not appear to affect either party's share of turnout, 2) universal vote-by-mail does not appear to increase either party's vote share, and 3) universal vote-by-mail modestly increases overall average turnout rates, in line with previous estimates. All three conclusions support the conventional wisdom of election administration experts and contradict many popular claims in the media.